From Citywire, October 24 2005:

By Lorna Bourke, Money Columnist

The prospect of living to be 95 is daunting for the individual but even more so for government, society and the institutions which have to deal with an ageing population.

Three leading actuaries are arguing that we can expect further improvements in mortality at older ages.

In a paper presented to the sessional meeting of the Institute of Actuaries the authors predict that mortality at age 70 could fall by three quarters over the next 40 years. This is equivalent to an average improvement of 3.5 % every year.

"Even relatively short-term projections are eye-opening," say the authors of this report, Stephen Richards, James Kirkby and Iain Currie. "Mortality at age 80 could fall by more than one half over the next 20 years. Put another way, 80-year-olds could be experiencing the same mortality rates in 2040 as 60 year olds did in the mid 1970s."

Clearly the implications for government are enormous - not least of all the cost of providing final salary linked public sector pensions where only last week the government, one again, wimped out on raising the retirement age from 60 to 65 to bring civil servants into line with the private sector.

© Copyright Citywire 2005..